Makara Sankranti ≠ Uttarayana

Hindus celebrate Makara Sankranti as Uttarayana. 

Sankranti means going from one place to another. When the sun goes from one constellation to another, its called Sankranti. When it leaves Dhanu (Sagittarius) and enters Makara (Capricorn), its called Makara Sankranti. 

Source: https://spaceplace.nasa.gov/constellations/en/

Uttarayana (movement of the sun to the North) is when the Sun (as seen from the northern hemisphere) has reached the lowest point on the southern skies. This day is the shortest day of the winter, and the sun begins its "northward journey". In modern parlance, it is the winter solstice. However, we know that winter solstice occurs on December 22. This is a scientific fact and is observable by anyone who cares to observe the path of the Sun.

Why then, do Hindus celebrate Uttarayana in the middle of January?

This is because it is mentioned in ancient treatises such as the Śrīmad-Bhāgavatam

ŚB 5.21.3

यन्मध्यगतो भगवांस्तपतपतिस्तपन आतपेन त्रिलोकीं प्रतपत्यवभासयत्यात्मभासा स एष उदगयनदक्षिणायनवैषुवतसंज्ञाभिर्मान्द्यशैघ्य्रसमानाभिर्गतिभिरारोहणावरोहणसमानस्थानेषु यथासवनमभिपद्यमानो मकरादिषु राशिष्वहोरात्राणि दीर्घह्रस्वसमानानि विधत्ते ॥ ३ ॥  

Translation (by Srila Prabhupada)

In the midst of that region of outer space [antarikṣa] is the most opulent sun, the king of all the planets that emanate heat, such as the moon. By the influence of its radiation, the sun heats the universe and maintains its proper order. It also gives light to help all living entities see. While passing toward the north, toward the south or through the equator, in accordance with the order of the Supreme Personality of Godhead, it is said to move slowly, swiftly or moderately. According to its movements in rising above, going beneath or passing through the equator — and correspondingly coming in touch with various signs of the zodiac, headed by Makara [Capricorn] — days and nights are short, long or equal to one another.

ŚB 5.21.4

यदा मेषतुलयोर्वर्तते तदाहोरात्राणि समानानि भवन्ति यदा वृषभादिषु पञ्चसु च राशिषु चरति तदाहान्येव वर्धन्ते ह्रसति च मासि मास्येकैका घटिका रात्रिषु ॥ ४ ॥  

Translation (by Srila Prabhupada)

When the sun passes through Meṣa [Aries] and Tulā [Libra], the durations of day and night are equal. When it passes through the five signs headed by Vṛṣabha [Taurus], the duration of the days increases [until Cancer], and then it gradually decreases by half an hour each month, until day and night again become equal [in Libra].

From the above it is very clear that according to Bhagavatam: 

• Uttarayana starts when Sun enters Makara (Capricorn) and lengths of days increase from there on; 
• Dakshinayana starts after it enters Karka (Cancer)and lengths of the days decrease, and; 
• At the midpoint of these two extremes the durations of night and day are equal when Sun passes through Mesa and Tula respectively.

Interestingly, this also seems to be consistent with what we know as the "Tropics". In the northern hemisphere, the lowest point the sun goes is called the Tropic of Capricorn (23.5S Latitude) and the highest point the sun goes is called the Tropic of Cancer (23.5N Latitude).

However, both these observations were based on the skies of the ancient world. 

Let’s look into which dates the Sun enters Makara (Capricorn). Also, for those who are wondering how one could tell which constellation the Sun is in during daylight, this is done early in the morning predawn when one can see the constellation at the Eastern horizon as it slowly starts to dim with the first rays of Sun (this period is known to be an auspicious time for spiritual practice and therefore called as brahma muhurtam).

On January 15, you can see below that the Sun is between Dhanu (Sagittarius) and Makara (Capricorn). So, it is true that the Sun enters Makara around Jan 15.

Uttarayana used to coincide with Makara Sankranti over 2000 years ago when the Earth's axis used to align with Dhruva (Alpha Draconis). Today, it aligns with Polaris. This is due to Precession of the earth as it wobbles like a top approximately once every 26000 years. This means that since the time of Śrīmad-Bhāgavatam, the Earth's axis has moved by about 24 degrees, resulting in the Uttarayana starting approximately 24 days earlier.

Our ancestors were very clear in their descriptions and this could be observed by anyone on the night sky at that time. There are also descriptions that may be not so easy to observe. As an example, verses in Srimad Bhagavatam also talk about the total distance the Sun travels through all the zodiacs - a distance of 95,100,000 yojanas to complete a year. There is some debate regarding the definition of a Yojana. However, it’s likely to be in the 6-9mile range. If one asssumes 7.5 miles, the 95 million Yojanas would amount to 720 million miles. Modern estimates of how much the earth travels around the sun in a year is about 584 million miles (although the earth goes around the sun, to the observer on earth, the sun appears to around the earth). Astonishingly, they seem to have got the order of magnitude correct!

Given the acute observations that our ancestors were making, not adjusting the Uttarayana seems odd. Have our Panchangams not been corrected for error that creeps in due to the Earth’s precession? As discussed, precession is the tilt in the earth's axis that rotates like a top approximately once every 26,000 years. So this means that with every passing millennium, the skies change 1/26th of the periodic change the earth goes through. Considering that the hindu civilization has been under foreign domination for almost a thousand years, has it stagnated in the update of the night skies? 

It is also curious that the effect of precession is used in what has been labeled as the Sayana system while the Vedic system is called as the Aayana system. Here are  some useful terms:

Ayana means movement. 

Uttara-ayana=movement of the Sun to north

Dakshina-ayana=movement of the Sun to South

Sa-ayana=moving with axial precession of the earth

Nir-ayana= not moving with axial precession of the earth

Ayanamsa= Ayana+amsa is the difference (correction) between the above two

Weather seasons depend on the equinoxes, and hence they can be correctly stated in terms of Sayana nakshatras. Nirayana nakshatras cannot be used to state the occurrences of the seasons correctly.

In summary:

(1) Sayana (Tropical) where the “zero” beginning of the zodiac starts with Mesha (Aries) at Vernal Equinox and  

(2) Nirayana (Sidereal) where the “zero” beginning starts Mesha (Aries) at Revati Nakshatra (Zeta Piscium).   

About 1800 years ago both these points were the same. However due to axial precession there is a difference of ~24 degrees between the two. This difference is known as Ayanamsa.

Conclusion:

It is time to update the system rather than using a two thousand year old system and applying a correction. It is also important to bring real observations back into our calendars. A civilization of great celestial observers and timekeepers cannot continue to be taken seriously on the achievements of their ancestors alone. Jyotisha is not a shruti and subject to continuous evolution and correction. Most importantly, it is sad to see that all conversation on this topic today is focussed entirely on astrology and not Jyotisha as Lagadha seems to have intended.

We should continue to celebrate Makara Sankranti as a harvest festival on January 15th. However, it is time to start celebrating Uttarayana on December 22nd which is more closer to Dhanur-Sankranti.

In fact stalwarts like Lagadha, Aryabhatta and Sayanacarya would probably have insisted that we do!

A Final Footnote:

One other reason such misalignments may have crept in maybe due to the increased importance of Astrology over Astronomy in the recent centuries, and not observing the skies like our ancestors did. The Rishis barely indulged in predicting the future. For instance, the father of Vedanga Jyotisha (literally meaning the lights in the sky), Lagadha Maharishi talks about only astronomy and time keeping to understand the cycles of nature. His Jyotisha Shastra has little to do with Astrology. Similarly, our Srutis, the Bhagavad Gita, and the Itihasa's do not talk about predicting the future but focus on brhman, dharma and karma, and use the heavenly bodies for recording the time of an event, or to align with the cycles of nature (Rta). On the same note, it is also interesting to note that in the magnum opus Yoga Vasishtha, young Rama asks if there is such a thing as destiny in the 8th chapter of the Mumuksha Khanda. Here is Rishis Vashishtha's reply:

तत्रैव मूढमतिभिर्दैवमस्तीति निश्चयः ।
आत्तो दुरवबोधेन रज्ज्वामिव भुजंगमः ॥ ३ ॥

tatraiva mūḍhamatibhirdaivamastīti niścayaḥ |
ātto duravabodhena rajjvāmiva bhujaṃgamaḥ || 3 ||

From this the ignorant are led to believe that there is a thing as destiny: the inscrutability of which has led them to the fallacy as that of the supposition of a snake in a rope. (Translation by Vihari Lal Mishra)

It is plausible that this curiously interesting analogy that Vashishtha uses may have influenced the great Adi Sankara many centuries later to describe the delusionary influences of maya!

Based on literary evidence, it is likely that Jotisha became a tool for predicting the future (phala jyotisha) much later in history due to foreign (Greek) influence. For instance Yavana Jataka is one of the earliest treatises that references Greek Astrology (as the name itself indicates). Also, it is not far fetched to think that during Megasthenes/Chandragupta Maurya’s times, there was exchange of ideas. At its core, the existence of destiny or the belief that events are already predestined or written and predictable is hardly Vedic and seems to go against the teachings of the Bhagavad Gita whose emphasis on Karma is consistent with Vashishtha’s teachings. Finally, the glaring absence of phala jyotisha in our itihasas, shrutis, and above all, Vedanga Jyotisha cannot simply be ignored and this contradiction needs to explored further with detached honesty. This topic, however, is beyond the scope of this article.